11/27/06
The division is in motion more this off season than in most. Two teams, the Giants and the Padres, are changing managers. The Giants, however, signed the Padre manager while the Padres went with a green kid in Bud Black. There's been a few signings and trades so far in the division but the biggest news is who wasn't retained. The Giants appear to be letting their biggest names leave as Barry Bonds may be on the move as well as Jason Schmidt and Moises Alou. The Dodgers have let JD Drew test the free agent market while the DBacks have let fan favorite, Luis Gonzalez, go.
Some big names are reported to be possibly headed to the NL West. ESPN reported late Monday afternoon that the Red Sox are "aggressively" shopping Ramirez, listing the Dodgers and the Padres among the teams that have inquired about the veteran slugger who would become expendable if the Sox sign JD Drew. The San Francisco Chronicle reported earlier in the day that the Giants also are interested in Ramirez, but pointed out that there are numerous obstacles ahead, including the future of Barry Bonds. If he re-signs with the Giants, it would blow any potential trade for Ramirez right out of McCovey Cove.
There's still a few months to go so it'll be interesting to see how things shake out, however, the Rockies seemed well position to move up in the standings by doing virtually nothing especially if the teams in the division keep replacing their old established stars with over-paid lesser ones. An example of this is the Dodgers recent signing of Juan Pierre. The Rockies have a horrible time scoring in Dodger stadium, however, now with Pierre out in center, then look for the Rockie base runners moving up a base with more regularity than in the past.
We'll give more updates as the winter rolls on.
9/28/06
The Rockies finish with a 4-15 record against the hated Dodgers
9/20/06
The Rockies finish with a 10-8 record against the hated Giants.
9/17/06
The Rockies finish with a 7-12 record against the hated DBacks.
9/6/06
The Rockies finish with a 11-9 record against the hated Padres.
9/3/06.. MLB.com
Hurdle was asked what he thought of the up-and-down division on Saturday, and he had this to say: "I think this division is a lot better than people give credit to. ... The Dodgers are getting stronger as the season goes. The Giants have proven to be the Giants: They hang around and then come back. The Diamondbacks have reinvented themselves."
7/17/06
Moves:
The West is still a very tight division despite the Rockies current swoon. The rumor mill has the Giants and Diamondbacks as possible sellers. San Francisco is taking calls about moving Jason Schmidt along with many of their old veterans who will be free agents Moises Alou, Ray Durham, Pedro Feliz, Todd Greene, Jose Vizcaino, Steve Kline, Steve Finley and Jamey Wright. Trading or releasing all these players could add $40-50 million in added flexibility for 2007. The DBacks find themselves in a similar positions albeit for different reasons. They are looking to move veterans like Gonzo and Shawn Green to make way for their younger/cheaper players.
The Dodgers and Padres are buyers. The Dodgers are looking for depth in the rotation and are considering making a move for Greg Maddux, Dontrelle Willis, Barry Zito and Livan Hernandez. Offense is always a need especially with the injury to Jeff Kent. With that deep farm system one would expect a few moves indeed. The Padres are also looking to dump veterans like Vinny Castilla and Ryan Klesko and are seriously hunting for a younger thirdbaseman like Brewers' Billy Hall and Corey Koskie, the Braves' Wilson Betemit and Indians Triple-A prospect Andy Marte. Bench depth and starting pitching is also a concern.
7/12/06
The division is tight. The last-place DBacks are just five games back of the first-place Padres. It has been this close all season long. One team makes a little run, another keeps pace while the others tread water, then they switch dancing partners and do it again... never resulting in anything other than mediocrity.
With all that in mind, I think we can definitely get an idea as to who will probably win the division. So even though I still think the Giants have the best potential for a good starting rotation at the top, the Dodgers are probably going to capture it with around 90-95 wins. The Giants slide into second with 85-90. San Diego has a staff that is so bland that you wonder how they are holding it together but they will with final effort being between 80-85. The good guys will bounce up and down on the .500 mark and also finish with 80-85 wins. The DBacks will clunk in at 75 wins or so.
5/15/06
It's plain to see now that the NL West is quite a bit better than most everyone and every sportswriter thought it would be. Obviously, the Rockies are leading the way in the surprise department with a winning record. The DBacks and the Padres with big winning streaks of late are making national headlines. And anybody that knows anything will tell you that once the Giants get the Bonds/Ruth thingy over with, then they'll start to play better mainly because of that nice rotation. And don't count out those Dodgers.. they have added a very veteran team over the winter and it is just taking some time for them to get their bearings.
It won't surprise me if 4 out of the five members are over .500 for the year. No, I doubt there will be any 100 game winners.. maybe not even any 90 game winners, but the race is certainly going to be tight the whole season.
"Everybody is dramatically improved from last year," Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd told BaseballWeekly.com. "I don't see any club in the division significantly above the other clubs, so I think it's going to come down to confidence, health and whoever gets on a roll."
--------------------
With the reintroduction of the unbalanced schedule a few years ago, it has become mightily important to play extremely well within the division. Generally the Rockies are horrible in that regard with it being especially brutal for them on the road. The seasons collapses can usually be pinpointed back to how inept the team has been within its own division and, of course, its failings elsewhere on the road. However, in this section, we'll just focus on comparing the Rockies to the other teams in the NL west.
One important way for the Rockies to become competitive is to improve their lot in the west. The team doesn't need to be this all mighty powerhouse in order to get into the tournament, it only needs to just be better than the other teams within the division. Of course that kind of thinking wont win you a World Series, but it at least gets you pointed in the right direction.
Early Division Projections
By RC
Since it is the Hot Stove season we decided it was time to make some early projections on how the Rockies will do in '07. The Rockies are fairly set with the exception of center field and that position may still belong to Cory Sullivan based on the lack of any other movement. We also think it is possible that Hawpe will see some playing time in center with Baker being the right fielder. Most of the other teams are also coming together. ESPN has a "Hot Stove" league section and they have projections for all of the MLB teams. We have largely utilized the ESPN team projections to make our predictions and analysis. We have compared each team by player & position. For hitters we have used the runs produced stat as the only comparison stat and we used '06 numbers. For pitchers we looked primarily at saves or wins and ERA. In many cases we have had to project hitting stats because many players did not play a 150+ game schedule..
The Dodgers come out on top in our evaluation with 31 points. They have the best infield and pitching staff. The are very weak in the outfield but their pitching is extremely strong and with the excellent infield they look to be a very difficult team to beat and with the Rockies history at losing to the Dodgers there is virtually no chance that the Rockies can win this division.
The Rockies come out number two in our evaluation with 37 points. We think the Rockies should make a run at 85 wins and they might have an outside shot at a wild card. This team is better than the national media will allow. If they keep Jennings this will be a strong pitching staff, they have the 2nd best infield and they might have the best outfield in the division.
The Padres come out number three with 41 points. I think they will have the 2nd best pitching staff in the division and the addition of Maddux may help them a great deal. Their problem is a very weak infield which may end up killing them.
The Giants will not be as tough as they have been in the past as they had 44 points. Their pitching staff is very average and is tied with the DBacks for worst in the division. They have a good infield that is likely to be the 2nd best in the division with a decent outfield. We think though that they are a 4th place team.
The Diamondbacks at 48 points are the weakest team in the division. Their infield & outfiled will be sub-par. They have one very good pitcher and they are done after that. It does not look like the Diamondbacks have done anything in the off season to get better.
We think that this has been a good off season for the Rockies and '07 looks good. A lot of other things need to happen, Helton needs to return to old form, Torrealba needs to stay healthy and a solid shortstop that can hit needs to emerge. We think Matsui will eventually become a very good and reliable 2nd baseman with Carroll being an excellent back up at any infield position. We just have to hope that these young players continue to improve and if the pitching staff pitches like last year this team will be fun to watch all year long.
Position Rockies Dodgers Padres Giants Dbacks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1B Helton (PFS) Garciaparra (PFS) Gonzalez Aurilia (PFS) Jackson
RP(rank) 170 (2) 186 (1) 141 (3) 130 (3) 139 (3)
2B Matsui/Carroll Kent (PFS) Walker Durham Hudson
RP(rank) 115* (4) 149 (1) 100 (5) 146 (2) 139 (2)
SS Tulowitzki/Barmes Furcal Green (PFS) Vizquel Drew (PFS)
RP(rank) 130 (3) 161 (1) 115 (4) 142 (2) 135 (5)
3B Atkins Betemit Kouzmanoff Feliz Tracy
RP(rank) 208 (1) 84 (4) no stats (5) 151 (2) 151 (2)
C Torrealba/Ianneta (PFS) Martin Bard (PFS) Molina (PFS) Snyder
RP(rank) 126 (2) 120 (2) 90 (4) 82 (4) 148**** (1)
RF Hawpe Ethier Giles Winn Quentin (PFS)
RP(rank) 129 (2) 113 (4) 156 (1) 127 (3) 115 (4)
CF Sullivan Pierre Cameron Roberts (PFS) Young
RP(rank) 75** (5) 124 (3) 149 (1) 146 (2) 108 (4)
LF Holliday Gonzalez Branyon (PFS) Bonds (PFS) Byrnes
RP(rank) 199 (1) 151 (2) 77 (5) 144 (2) 134 (3)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P1 Jennings Schmidt Peavy Cain Webb
W & ERA 9 & 3.78 (3) 11 & 3.59 (2) 11 & 4.09 (4) 13 & 4.15 (4) 16 & 3.10 (1)
P2 Cook Lowe Young Morris Hernandez
W & ERA 9 & 4.23 (3) 16 & 3.63 (1) 11 & 3.46 (2) 10 & 4.98 (5) 13 & 4.83 (4)
P3 Francis Penny Maddux Lowry Davis
W & ERA 13 & 4.16 (3) 16 & 4.33 (1) 15 & 4.26 (3) 7 & 4.74 (4) 11 & 4.91 (4)
P4 Fogg Wolf Hensley Hennessey Gonzalez
W & ERA 11 & 5.49 (2) 4 & 5.56 (4) 11 & 3.71 (1) 4 & 4.26 (3) 3 & 5.67 (5)
P5 Kim Billingsley Thompson Sanchez Eveland
W & ERA 8 & 5.57 (3) 7 & 3.80 (1) 4 & 4.99 (2) 3 & 4.95 (4) 0 & 8.13 (5)
Closer Fuentes Saito Hoffman Benitez Julio
Sv & ERA 30 & 3.44 (3) 24 & 2.07 (2) 46 & 2.14 (1) 17 & 3.52 (4) 16 & 4.23 (5)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Runs produced (RP) = (runs scored + RBI) - Home runs
*Carrolls 06 numbers
**we don't know if Sullivan will start but we believe he will be 4th outfielder
***numbers produced by both players who played a combined 90 games
****combination of Estrada and Snyder in '06
*****projected numbers over a full season, he played only 55 games in '06
PFS = projection for full season
Starting Eight Pitching Staffs Projected Finish
--------------------- ----------------- ----------------------------
Dodgers = 19 Dodgers = 11 Dodgers = 31 points 1st
Rockies = 20 Padres = 13 Rockies = 37 points 2nd
Giants = 20 Rockies = 17 Padres = 41 points 3rd
Dbacks = 24 Giants = 24 Giants = 44 points 4th
Padres = 28 DBacks = 24 Diamondbacks = 48 points 5th