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Baseball salary caps and Revenue Sharing.

Jacksonville Florida is a relatively small town with a population of only 735,000 people. The nearest large city is Atlanta and those people won't be traveling down to Jacksonville to see any Jaguar games. South of Jacksonville there are two much bigger cites, Tampa Bay and Miami who both have their own teams. Question, why is it that at the beginning of the football season do the Jaguars have a shot at winning a Super Bowl and the Kansas City Royals, a city of similar size have absolutely no shot at even sniffing a playoff spot in baseball World Series tournament?

Before answering that question we need to make clear that baseballs problem with parity, or lack there of, is a result the Players Union. The players union has adamantly refused to accept any kind of revenue sharing or salary cap. If the players cared about parity, which I don't think they do, they would change the way they do business. Please remember that the MLB Players union is perhaps the most powerful union in the country. The NFL on the other hand is proportionately weak. This accounts for the fact that NFL owners were able to create a league with a "hard salary cap", incredible revenue sharing mechanisms and even contracts that aren't guaranteed.

Before moving onward we need to also dismiss the idea of "Socialism" in football and this ridiculous idea that we should let the free market work and that the free market will work in baseball. Think of the NFL, NBA, MLB & NHL as being independent large businesses each competing for our entertainment dollar. Within each of these businesses are franchises that compete within the rules established by the league. The franchises within a league compete against each other for victories but they should not compete against each other for dollars. These leagues do though compete again each other for our entertainment dollar and they compete against the movie industry, theme parks and a host of other entertainment industries including other TV programs. The NFL now wipes the floor with the other three major sports when in comes to TV. The NFL is so good at TV that they now earn over $2.2 billion in broadcast contracts that are split equally among all of the teams. Approximately 60 percent of the revenues of the average NFL club today come from the joint presentation of NFL games on national television networks. These revenues are shared equally among all clubs without regard to any club's market size or revenue potential.

Baseball on the other hand keeps TV regional and shares nothing, so the Yankees can earn huge amounts of money in the large NY city TV market. How can the Royals or the Brewers ever hope to earn the kind of dollars the Yankees earn?

This may sound like a goofy analogy but I think it is a good one. As a weightlifter the strength of my hands is critical to completing a good deadlift. I must have 10 equally strong fingers. If I had two tremendously strong fingers and the rest were weak I would not be able to lift a thing. On the other hand if all ten fingers are strong then I will be able to lift a great deal of weight.

This in a nut shell is the problem with MLB, they have a few monstrously strong teams and a lot of weak ones and thus they are becoming a weak league.

Revenue sharing is the secret to the NFL's success. In addition to TV revenue they share everything from the salary cap to the college draft, merchandise and gate receipts. Currently 40 percent of the gate receipts from NFL games go into a pool that is eventually divided equally among the teams. This took effect in 2002. Previously the league had earmarked the 40 percent of gate revenues for the visiting team.

I contend that the socialist model developed by the NFL works best within the larger, very much capitalist entertainment sector of the US economy.

We completed a little research and found out that the average payroll per NFL team was about $80,000,000 per team and each team spent + / - $5,000,000 of that amount. Thanks to the salary cap there is no difference in dollars spent per team. It turns out that the specific NFL cap for 2004 was $80.582 million.

MLB on the other hand is a different story with staggering differences. The extremes are the Devil Rays at $29,000,000 to the Yankees at $181,000,000.

RC
"The Strongest Rockie Fan"

Originally posted on 04/05/05

Comment on the Article:

Team         Median salary - 2003-2004         Total Payroll - 2003-2004

Angles      $1,000,000 up to $2,150,000      $79,031,667 up to $100,534,667

Astros      $1,200,000 down to $750,000      $71,040,000 up to $75,397,000

Marlins     $1,400,000 down to $600,000      $48,750,000 down to $42,143,042

Tigers         $320,000 up to $362,500       $49,168,000 down to $46,832,000

Rockies        $550,000 up to $575,000       $67,179,667 down to $65,445,167

Indians        $330,000 down to $325,000     $48,584,834 down to $34,319,300

Phillies       $850,000 up to $2,425,000     $70,780,000 up to $93,219,167

Reds           $694,000 down to $422,500     $59,355,667 down to $46,615,250

White Sox      $475,000 up to $775,000       $51,010,000 up to $65,212,500

Cubs         $1,125,000 up to $1,550,000     $79,868,333 up to $90,560,000

Red Sox      $2,000,000 up to $3,087,5000    $99,846,500 up to $127,298,500

Orioles      $1,200,000 down to $887,500     $73,877,500 down to $51,623,333

Braves         $800,000 down to $737,500    $106,243,667 down to $90,182,500

Royals         $313,000 up to $436,250       $40,518,000 up to $47,609,000

Dodgers      $2,605,834 down to $1,500,000 $105,872,620 down to $92,902,001

Brewers        $428,000 down to $400,000     $40,627,000 down to $27,528,000

Twins          $750,000 down to $525,000     $55,505,000 down to $53,585,000

Expos          $333,500 up to $350,000       $51,948,500 down to $41,197,500

Mets         $1,300,000 down to $900,000    $117,176,429 down to $96,660,970

Athletics    $1,032,500 up to $1,357,500     $50,260,834 up to $59,425,667

Pirates        $825,000 down to $350,000     $54,812,429 down to $32,227,929

Padres         $555,000 up to $862,500       $45,384,833 up to $55,384,833

Mariners     $3,150,000 down to $2,658,333   $86,959,167 down to $81,515,834

Devil Rays     $300,000 up to $650,000       $19,630,000 up to $29,556,667

Rangers      $1,150,000 down to $550,000    $103,491,667 down to $55,050,417

Blue Jays      $600,000 up to $825,000       $51,269,000 down to $50,017,000

Yankees      $4,575,000 down to $3,100,000 $152,749,814 up to $184,193,950

Giants       $1,937,500 down to $1,000,000   $82,852,167 down to $82,019,166

Dbacks       $1,750,000 down to $500,000     $80,657,000 down to $69,780,750

Cardinals      $900,000 up to $1,100,000     $83,786,666 down to $83,228,333

You'll notice above that 16 teams had median salaries that went down and 19 teams had total payrolls that went down. This doesn't look like a league chock full of free spenders. In fact if we use the NFL payroll cap of about $80,000,000 which virtually every team spends as a demarcation point, we find that only 11 teams in MLB exceed that amount and the rest are well under. This leads me to believe that MLB isn't earning close to what the NFL earns.

The last ten LCS are shown below on the left and Cleveland and Florida are the only small spending teams that make it. The 1997 Florida team didn't count as a small spending team. The last ten World Series participants are are on the right. With the exception of Cleveland and San Diego all participants were big spenders. No little spenders make it.

Even if we were to display the divisional playoffs you would see that only the occasionally small spending team would sneak in. The Rockies weren't a small spender in 1995.

A look at the Rox Head Power Rankings shown at the top right of this web page shows some more interesting things. There are no big spending teams ranked in the bottom ten. Those low salaried teams were bad in 2004 and will be just as bad in 2005. The top 10 is full of big salaried teams except for the Twins and the Marlins.

I think we can end this part of the article by saying "Money doesn't by happiness but it sure makes life a lot easier."

We've talked out how important revenue sharing is but what about a salary cap. Let's say MLB set a salary cap of $60,000,000 per team. This would still leave 12 teams that spend below the cap. This why I believe revenue sharing to be more important than a cap. Though, a cap is still part of the puzzle.

NFL (hard) salary cap

The NFL salary cap is complex. So complex that there are people dubbed "capologists" who help teams and the league work within the system. Basically, the NFL's salary cap, which came into being in 1994, is based on league revenues. The official term is, Defined Gross Revenues (DGR). The DGR is based on ticket sales, merchandise sales, and revenue from broadcasts. This amount is divided equally amongst all 32 teams. Teams must pay salaries that are 56% of that cap. The cap is a relatively hard cap with many rules. The biggest thing teams do to get around a cap is put all of the big money at the end of the contract. For example, a 5-year, $20 million contract (not counting a signing bonus) signed in 2003 as described above would probably allocate the money in the following manner:

Year 1 (2003): $450,000 (min. cap given to players with 4+ years experience)
Year 2 (2004): $1 million
Year 3 (2005): $1.5 million
Year 4 (2006): $5 million
Year 5 (2007): $12 million

In order to convince the player to sign such a cap friendly contract, the team will fork over a large signing bonus. The signing bonus is guaranteed, so that money is the player's to keep if the team decides to release him later. The signing bonus IS part of the player's salary. So it counts against the cap. When determining team and player salary, the signing bonus will be prorated over the length of the contract.

For example, if a player signs a four-year deal with a $1 million signing bonus, $250,000 of that bonus will count toward team salary for each contract year ($1 million divided evenly over the four-year contract is $250,000 per year). If a team releases a player, the unamortized bonus money (the remaining prorated bonus money) counts immediately against the cap.
This just scratches the surface of the complexity of the NFL's salary cap. There are several elements that go into it. What happens to teams that go over the cap? In theory, that shouldn't happen. That's because the league must approve all contracts and its job is to make sure no team exceeds the cap. The league is constantly reviewing all contracts to make sure no team exceeds the cap. It has, however, happened and teams can be fined

The National Football League is the most stable of the professional sports leagues with respect to its business and labor matters. It recently signed a national broadcast package which will bring each club as much as $58 million now and $90 million in 8 years. NFL stadiums are customarily filled, therefore, game revenues are maximized.

NBA (soft) Salary Cap.

This just means that in the NBA a team can exceed the cap when they sign free agents that are already on their team. The NFL doesn't have a rule like this. The current salary cap is $43,840,000. This number is 57% of Basketball Related Income. In addition to the salary cap the NBA has minimum salaries and maximum salaries. The NBA also has so many exceptions that allow a teams cap to increase that the exceptions can't be counted. As such there is a huge disparity in team salaries.

Below on the left you'll notice that there are 24 teams above the so called salary cap. The standings as of three weeks ago are shown on the right:

1) New York Knicks               $103,100,000
2) Dallas Mavericks              $90,900,000
3) Portland Trail Blazers        $75,000,000
4) Philadelphia 76ers            $70,700,000
5) Minnesota Timberwolves    $70,300,000
6) Memphis Grizzlies             $68,100,000
7) Indiana Pacers                 $63,200,000
8) Boston Celtics                  $63,000,000
9) Sacramento Kings             $62,000,000
10) Los Angeles Lakers         $61,000,000
11) Orlando magic                $60,500,000
12) Milwaukee Bucks            $57,000,000
13) Houston Rockets            $56,000,000
14) Golden State Warriors      $56,800,000
15) Miami Heat                     $54,200,000
16) New Jersey Nets             $54,000,000
17) Seattle SuperSonics        $52,000,000
18) Detroit Pistons                $51,700,000
19) Chicago Bulls                 $51,200,000
20) Toronto Raptors                 $51,000,000
21) Washington Wizards        $47,000,000
22) Cleveland Cavaliers         $47,000,000
23) San Antonio Spurs           $44,500,000
24) Los Angeles Clippers       $44,000,000
Cap--------------------------------------------------Cap
25) New Orleans Hornets       $43,700,000
26) Utah Jazz                        $43,700,000
27) Denver Nuggets               $43,700,000
28) Phoenix Suns                  $43,100,000
29) Atlanta Hawks                  $39,000,000
30) Charlotte Bobcats             $23,000,000

          EASTERN CONFERENCE
          ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NORTHWEST DIV.            W    L    PCT GB
------------        -    -    --- --
8. BOSTON          32   29   .525   -
4. PHILADELPHIA    29   32   .475   3
16.NEW JERSEY      27   35   .435   5 1/2
1. NEW YORK        26   34   .433   5 1/2
20.TORONTO         26   35   .426   6

CENTRAL DIV.        W    L    PCT GB
------------        -    -    --- --
18.DETROIT         37   22   .627   -
22.CLEVELAND       32   27   .542   5
19.CHICAGO         31   27   .534   5 1/2
7. INDIANA         30   30   .500   7 1/2
12.MILWAUKEE       25   34   .424 12

SOUTHEAST DIV.       W    L    PCT GB
--------------       -    -    --- --
15. MIAMI           46   16   .742   -
21. WASHINGTON      33   26   .559 11 1/2
11. ORLANDO         31   29   .517 14
30. CHARLOTTE       12   46   .207 32
29. ATLANTA         10   50   .167 35

WESTERN CONFERENCE

                ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NORTHWEST DIV.       W    L    PCT GB
--------------       -    -    --- --
17. SEATTLE         41   18   .695   -
27. DENVER          31   29   .517 10 1/2
5. MINNESOTA       31   30   .508 11
3. PORTLAND        22   37   .373 19
26. UTAH            20   40   .333 21 1/2

PACIFIC DIV.         W    L    PCT GB
------------         -    -    --- --
28. PHOENIX         47   14   .770   -
9. SACRAMENTO      38   24   .613   9 1/2
10. LA LAKERS       30   29   .508 16
24. LA CLIPPERS     27   34   .443 20
14. GOLDEN STATE    19   42   .311 28

SOUTHWEST DIV.       W    L    PCT GB
--------------       -    -    --- --
23. SAN ANTONIO     47   14   .770   -
2. DALLAS          39   20   .661   7
13. HOUSTON         35   25   .583 11 1/2
6. MEMPHIS         34   26   .567 12 1/2
25. NEW ORLEANS     13   47   .217 33 1/2

You will notice that the amount of money spent has no direct relation to the amount of wins a team has. Notice the record the Phoenix Suns have and the amount they spend on their team. We note that a basketball team only has to employ 12 players so these 12 players make proportionately the most money of all team sports. We also think basketball is a unique sport in that one great player can make a team great so team salaries can be relatively low if a team has that one great player. In short, revenue sharing is a big advantage in the NBA and in spite of itself pro basketball does pretty well and is in no danger.

I will like to skip Hockey for obvious reasons.

In summary, Baseball will slowly begin to have trouble if we are all forced to suffer through season

after season of watching the Yankees make a run for the World Series title. If you don't believe baseball has trouble find out how many teams sell out on opening day. I think this will be a telling stat. I think baseball would be a lot more fun if the Royals had a shot at the playoffs. As it is we already know which teams will be in the playoffs and the season is just a run to find out which players can put up the best statistics.

LCS Participants:

                    NL                                            AL
1995 Cleveland 4, Seattle 2          Atlanta 4, Cinncinnati 2

1996 New York 4, Baltimore 1       Atlanta 4, St. Louis 3

1997 Cleveland 4, Baltimore 2      Florida 4, Atlanta 2

1998 New York 4, Cleveland 2      San Diego 4, Atlanta 2

1999 New York 4, Boston 1          Atlanta 4, New York 2

2000 New York 4, Seattle 2          New York 4, St Louis 1

2001 New York 4, Seattle 1          Arizona 4, Atlanta 1

2002 Anaheim 4, Minnesota 1      San Fran 3, St Louis 1

2003 New York 4, Boston 3          Florida 4, Chicago 3

2004 Boston 4, New York 3          St Louis 4, Houston 3

World Series

1995 Atlanta N.L. beat Cleveland A.L. 4-2
1996 New York A.L. beat Atlanta N.L. 4-2
1997 Florida N.L. beat Cleveland A.L. 4-3
1998 New York A.L. beat San Diego, N.L. 4-0
1999 New York A.L. beat Atlanta N.L. 4-0
2000 New York A.L. beat New York N.L. 4-1
2001 Arizona N.L. beat New York A.L. 4-3
2002 Anaheim A.L. beat San Francisco N.L. 4-3
2003 Florida N.L. beat New York A.L. 4-2
2004 Boston A.L. beat St. Louis N.L. 4-0

Archived Articles

Salary Cap Update
by RC

It's early but we were curious to see where team payrolls were in relation to a teams place in the standing. (see here). The team salaries presented in this article represent the players on the roster. They don't include the payments teams are making to players on other teams, e.g. The large amount the Rockies are paying Larry Walker, Mike Hampden, Denny Neagle.

Some interesting notes:

1. The low salary teams are predictably bad, except for the Brewers and we predict (easy prediction) that they won't make the playoffs.

2. Minnesota, as always, is competitive despite a low payroll.

3. Conversely, Oakland isn't competitive this year.

4. The Mets continue to be the worst spenders in baseball, they consistently outspend most everyone and then proceed to lose.

5. Mid range salaries teams seem to be fairing well so far this summer, most notably the Orioles.

6. In the east, the Red Sox will likely make the playoffs, in the AL Central the highest salary team is in first place, in the AL west the highest salary team is in first place, in the NL east no matter what the others do they can't beat the Braves, in the NL Central the highest salary team is in first place, in the NL west the 2nd highest salary team is in first place and San Francisco is bad only because Barry Bonds isn't playing.

As we have previously theorized "it takes money to win in baseball." We'll keep a watch on this money spending to determine how a teams salary affects the final standings.

           American League
EAST                           W    L

Baltimore $74,570,539 #14     21   11

Boston - $121,311,945 #2      20   13

Toronto - $45,038,500 #25     18   16

NY Yankees - #205,938,439 #1 15   19

Tampa Bay - $37,975,067 #29   13   21

CENTRAL                        W    L

Chicago Sox - $75,228,000 #13 24    9

Minnesota - $56,615,000 #20   20   12

Detroit - - $68,998,183 #15   15   17

Cleveland - $41,830,400 #26   13   19

Kansas City - $36,881,00 #30 8   25

WEST                           W    L

LA Angels - $95,017, 822 #5   19   14

Texas - $53,891,258 #22       18   16

Oakland - $55,869,262 #21     14   19

Seattle - $85,883,334 - #9    13   20

             National League
EAST                           W    L

Atlanta - $85,148,582 - #9    21   12

Florida - $60,375,961 - #18   18   12

Washington - $48,581,500 -#23 18   15

NY Mets - $104,770,139 - #3   18   16

Philadelphia -$95,337,908 -#4 15   19

CENTRAL                        W    L

St. Louis - #92,919,842 - #6 20   12

Milwaukee - $40,234,833 #27   16   16

Chicago Cubs -$87,210,933 -#8 14   18

Pittsburgh - $38,133,000 -#28 14   18

Houston - $76,779,002 - #12   12   20

Cincinnati - $59,658,275 -#19 12   20

WEST                           W    L

LA Dodgers - $81,029,500 -#11 20   12

Arizona - $63,015,833 - #16   19   15

San Diego - $62,888,192 - #17 18   16

San Francisco-$89,487,426 -#7 16   16

Colorado - $48,107,500 - #24   8   22

Archived Articles

R.C.
"The Strongest Rockie Fan."

THE ROAD TO THE MAJOR LEAGUES

How hard is it to make the Major Leagues? There are 30 teams with 25 players per team. This makes for a total of 750 players in the major leagues. In 2004 there were 20 minor leagues with 242 teams, which make for about 7,000 players. There is triple "A", Double "A", three levels of Class "A" and Rookie leagues. Within these leagues there are Independent leagues that aren't associated the MLB. In the 1930's there were twice this many minor league teams. But, in the 30's college players rarely went to the pros and the Negro leagues weren't part of the mix and finally, prior to the 1970's MLB didn't shop out side of the country for players. As will be later described, the pool of talent is much larger today than it used to be because MLB looks all over the globe for players.

In addition to the minor league players that are struggling for a spot there are college players who are draft eligible and thus potential prospects. For example USC has produced 94 major leaguers. The University of Texas has produced 91 Major leaguers. There are Division one, Division two, Division three, NAIA and Junior Colleges that produce players. There are currently available rankings for the top 25 teams in each of those five categories. This makes for a legitimate pool of another 4,000 players all fighting for that elusive spot on a big league team. Finally, there are about 50 states with another, on average 25 teams with players that potentially could at a minimum get drafted. If we include only seniors on these high school teams, this makes for another 12,500 players to vying for a spot.

Last year there were 50 rounds in the draft with 1,500 players being chosen. We have no idea how many free agents there were but we doubt there were many given how many players are drafted. Most free agents come from outside of the USA. Based on an above described pool of roughly 23,500 players your chances of getting drafted are pretty slim.

As we all know the MLB talent pool isn't limited to the players in the USA. We now are seeing the proliferation of Asian players in the Bigs.    There are 12 professional teams in the Japanese Major Leagues and each roster is huge carrying as many as 60 players so that is another 720 players to contend with. There are also many more minor league teams that play as well.   Please see this web site for more information, http://www.japanesebaseball.com/teams/index.jsp. In addition to the Japanese league there are eight professional Korean teams with about 20 minor league teams. This makes for another 800 or so players.

Then we go south of the border where in Mexico there are 41 professional baseball teams that over the years have produced 100 Big league ball players. This makes for another 1200 players to throw in the mix. We here in Colorado should not forget about Andres Galaragga and Venezuela. There are ten professional teams in Venezuela so toss in another 300 players. Don't forget about all of the players in Central America that are struggling to make teams as well. I am guessing there are another 4,000 or so players in this area trying to make a big team league team. Also, don't forget about the many excellent players in Castro's little Utopia of Cuba. Finally, there is a Puerto Rican winter league, Dominican Winter league and a Caribbean league.

Hopefully, by now we've painted a picture that describes a huge pool of players that could potentially make it to at least the minor leagues. In the above paragraphs we've detailed at least 24,000 players who could conceivably be drafted or invited to play on a minor or major league team. To add more fuel to the fire, some groups estimate that there are 60 million people playing baseball worldwide.

We've discussed how difficult it is to get drafted but how hard is to make the big leagues after being drafted. The draft was initiated in 1965 and in that year they drafted 813 players. There were an unlimited number of rounds as the teams continued to pick players until all teams had decided they had enough. Baseball America tracks each draft class with latest numbers covering 1965-1995. During that period, 64.9 percent of Round 1 selections eventually played at the big league level, 41.6 percent of second-rounders make the big leagues. Including sandwich picks between the opening two rounds, the combined figure is 53.5 percent.   Of this percentage a much smaller number are players you would recognize. To demonstrate the difficulty of evaluating players, in 1965 the Orioles chose 70 players and only three eventually made their team.
Below are the Rockies first round picks. Only five of these picks have gone on to be regular & reliable players and one will make the Hall of Fame. We think you can guess who that player is.

                       2004 Christopher Nelson
                       2003 Ian Stewart
                       2002 Jeff Francis
                       2001 None
                       2000 Matt Harrington - debacle
                       1999 Jason Jennings
                       1998 Matt Roney
                       1997 Mark Mangum
                       1996 Jake Westbrook (pitching for Cleveland)
                       1995 Todd Helton
                       1994 Doug Million
                       1993 Jamey Wright
                       1992 John Burke

We looked at the Yankees first round picks and only two names pop up as having become regular day to day players and they are Derek Jeter and Thurman Munson. Obviously the Yankees are good at buying players but not so good at drafting them. On the flip side their two successful choices are Hall of Fame candidates.

What about the best team of the last 15 years, the Braves. This team has been only marginally better than the Yankees. They have picked only four players what are names that anyone would readily recognize: Chipper Jones, Kent Mercker, Bob Horner and Dale Murphy.

http://www.birdsinthebelfry.com/amateur_draft_part_four.htm - This is a nice web site that gave us a history of all first round draft picks. As you can see only 5% of them will go on to be star players. Only 20% of them will become useful players who contribute. 40% of these first round draft picks won't even sniff the major leagues. As you can see, even the best of the best have a brutally hard time making the "Show", can you imagine how hard it is to make a big league team if you fall lower in the draft. Why do we only look at the first round?   Well, three reasons. First, I don't want to bore you to death. Second, the first round of the draft represents each team's best effort, in terms of talent evaluation and its wish list. Evaluating amateur baseball players is much more of an art than a science, but the fact remains that there is an excellent correlation between round of selection and ultimate big league success; the higher the round, the more likely a player is to make it to the big leagues and stay there.

First Round Pick Summary

Team         Picks Years #0 #1 #2 #3 #4   %0    %1    %2    %3    %#4 Useless Useful
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anaheim       37     6.4    9 7 6 12 3 24.3% 18.9% 16.2% 32.4% 8.1%   59.5%   40.5%
Arizona        4      .5    3 2 0 0 0 75.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%    0.0%
Atlanta       36     4.1   15 6 7 5 3 41.7% 16.7% 19.4% 13.9% 8.3%   77.8%   22.2%
Baltimore     37     3.2   21 4 4 5 3 56.8% 10.8% 10.8% 13.5% 8.1%   78.4%   21.6%
Boston        36     4.0   19 2 6 5 4 52.8% 5.6% 16.7% 13.9% 11.1%   75.0%   25.0%
Chicago (A)   39     4.8   14 7 10 5 3 35.9% 17.9% 25.6% 12.8% 7.7%   79.5%   20.5%
Chicago (N)   41     3.5   16 11 8 4 2 39.0% 26.8% 19.5% 9.8% 4.9%   85.4%   14.6%
Cincinnati    35     3.4   18 4 4 7 2 51.4% 11.4% 11.4% 20.0% 5.7%   74.3%   25.7%
Cleveland     37     4.8   17 3 7 9 1 45.9% 8.1% 18.9% 24.3% 2.7%   73.0%   27.0%
Colorado       9     1.8    4 3 1 0 1 44.4% 33.3% 11.1% 0.0% 11.1%   88.9%   11.1%
Detroit       37     3.6   17 7 7 4 2 45.9% 18.9% 18.9% 10.8% 5.4%   83.8%   16.2%
Florida        9     2.6    4 2 1 2 0 44.4% 22.2% 11.1% 22.2% 0.0%   77.8%   22.2%
Houston       35     3.6   14 8 5 4 4 40.0% 22.9% 14.3% 11.4% 11.4%   77.1%   22.9%
Kansas City   35     4.9   12 5 12 5 1 34.3% 14.3% 34.3% 14.3% 2.9%   82.9%   17.1%
Los Angeles   34     4.4   18 3 5 7 1 52.9% 8.8% 14.7% 20.6% 2.9%   76.5%   23.5%
Milwaukee     32     5.9   11 5 2 11 3 34.4% 15.6% 6.3% 34.4% 9.4%   56.3%   43.8%
Minnesota     38     4.1   13 6 12 6 1 34.2% 15.8% 31.6% 15.8% 2.6%   81.6%   18.4%
Montreal      34     4.5   17 2 4 11 0 50.0% 5.9% 11.8% 32.4% 0.0%   67.6%   32.4%
New York (A) 28     4.4   11 4 6 5 2 39.3% 14.3% 21.4% 17.9% 7.1%   75.0%   25.0%
New York (N) 42     4.7   16 9 5 10 2 38.1% 21.4% 11.9% 23.8% 4.8%   71.4%   28.6%
Oakland       39     5.4   14 4 9 7 5 35.9% 10.3% 23.1% 17.9% 12.8%   69.2%   30.8%
Philadelphia 35     4.0   14 4 8 8 1 40.0% 11.4% 22.9% 22.9% 2.9%   74.3%   25.7%
Pittsburgh    37     3.5   21 2 7 5 2 56.8% 5.4% 18.9% 13.5% 5.4%   81.1%   18.9%
San Diego     35     5.3   11 7 7 9 1 31.4% 20.0% 20.0% 25.7% 2.9%   71.4%   28.6%
San Francisco 41     4.4   14 11 9 5 2 34.1% 26.8% 22.0% 12.2% 4.9%   82.9%   17.1%
Seattle       25     6.3    5 4 5 9 2 20.0% 16.0% 20.0% 36.0% 8.0%   56.0%   44.0%
St. Louis     42     4.9   15 3 12 11 1 35.7% 7.1% 28.6% 26.2% 2.4%   71.4%   28.6%
Tampa Bay      5     0.0    5 0 0 0 0 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%    0.0%
Texas         34     5.5   10 7 10 6 1 29.4% 20.6% 29.4% 17.6% 2.9%   79.4%   20.6%
Toronto       27     3.1   10 8 2 6 1 37.0% 29.6% 7.4% 22.2% 3.7%   74.1%   25.9%
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL        955     4.1 388(150)181 183 54 40.6% 15.7% 19.0% 19.2% 5.7%   75.3%   24.8%

Legend:
Picks: Total number of first round picks in draft history; Years: Average number of years (or partial years) in big leagues for first round picks; # 0: Number of players not reaching major leagues; #1: number of "cup of coffee" players; #2: number of journeyman players; #3: number of starting/contributing players; #4: number of star players; % 0: percentage first round picks not reaching majors; % 1: percentage "cup of coffee" first round picks; % 2: percentage journeyman first round picks; % 3: percentage starting/contributing first round picks; % 4: percentage star first round picks; Useless: percentage first round picks in categories 0-2; Useful: percentage first round picks in categories 3-4

Making the big leagues is a tough proposition. In 2002 the Seattle Mariners signed an 18 year old from the Dominican Republic named Fausto Carmona. In his first year he played in the rookie Appalachian League. He then played in the "A" level where he recorded a 17-3 record and had an ERA of 2.00. He is now 22 years old and still isn't on the major league team but is still working at it and plays in winter leagues as well.

Making the Major leagues is though a virtual certainty when you are the very first player chosen and all of them have made the Major Leagues except one. In 1966 New York Mets, picking first in the June free-agent draft, pass up Arizona State OF Reggie Jackson to select C Steve Chilcott. Chilcott will retire after six years in the minors and will be the only number-one pick to never play in the major leagues. The A's take Jackson with the 2nd pick. Mr. Chilcott is rated by most to the be the worst draft pick in Major League history.

What about Rockies players, how has their road to the big leagues been? Garrett Atkins has worked at it a little bit. He was drafted by the Mets in the 10th round or the 300th pick in the 1997 draft. He instead went to play at the University of CA-Irvine and was picked by the Rockies in the 5th round (137th pick) of the 2000 draft. Mr. Atkins is now 25 years old and looks like he is the Show to stay. He played in Portland, then Salem, then Caroline, finally with the Sky Sox and he now looks be the Rockies third basemen to stay.

For your interest a wonderful site called "The Baseball Cube", http://thebaseballcube.com/statistics/10_2000_R.shtml has everything you could need to know about every current player, either minor or major leagues.

31 year old Aaron Miles has had a tough time getting to the Rockies. He was the 529th player chosen in the 19th round of the 1995 draft by the Houston Astros. He has played for the GCL Astros, Quad City, Michigan, Kissimee, Birmingham, Charlotte, Chi White Sox, Sky Sox and now the Rockies. He spent 10 years in the minors and we promise you that even though this man may have great will power, he will not be the Rockies 2nd basemen for more than a couple years. He is too old to be a 2nd year pro.

26 year old Clint Barmes has had a road that is similar to Mr. Atkins. He was the 287th pick in the 10th round of the 2000 draft. He played five years in the minor leagues before he became the full time shortstop. Only time will tell if he is really the shortstop of the future.

The Rockies have one player that we think has the best chance to be star and a potential five tool player and that is Brad Hawpe. This guy has a great swing and a cannon for an arm. He was drafted out of high school. He was the 1344th player chosen in the 1997 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. He went on the play at Louisiana State University and then he was chosen as the 317th player in the 2000 draft (11th round) by the Rockies. 2000 was a good year for the Dan O'Dowd. He played five years in the Minor Leagues: Portland, Asheville, Salem, Tulsa, Sky Sox and now the Rockies.

For endurance Preston Wilson gets a prize as he spent eight years in the minor leagues. That is over half of his professional career. He was a bit of disappointment as he was the 9th player chosen in the first round of the 1992 draft by the Mets. This just proves what a dicey thing a draft pick is in baseball.

We will end our discussion with two more players who should get a prize for endurance. The first is Scott Randall who is pitcher drafted in the 1995 draft by the Rockies. He was the 291st player taken in the 11th round. He has now spent 10 years in the Minors and has been shipped back and forth to 18 teams. He has gotten to pitch part of a year in 2003 with the Reds. Mr. Randall is now almost 30 years old and likely will never be a big leaguer.

The final player can only be considered a failure as a pro-baseball player. On the flip side I give him two thumbs up for effort and never giving up. These virtues mean something and I can only say that Brian Buchanan has "the never die attitude". In six weeks Mr. Buchanan will be 32 years old. He was the 24th player chosen in the 1st round of the 1994 draft by the Yankees whom we've already proven don't know how to draft first round players. He has spent all 12 of his years in professional baseball in the minor leagues. He has spent parts of five seasons with five major league teams.    This outfielder at best can hope for a role as a pinch hitter but I doubt that he will ever make it in the major leagues.

In the end I could make similar arguments for the difficulty in making any professional sport, particularly, Hockey, football and basketball. Baseball is unique in that it is the most global of all sports so the pool of talent that the Major Leagues can cull from is huge. I also think the global nature of baseball is even bigger than basketball. I also think that (with some exceptions) basketball is a unique sport in that it is limited to people over six feet tall. Another fact that is unique to baseball is that young men at the ages of 28 - 30 years old are still struggling to make a MLB team. Again, with exceptions this isn't true in the other pro sports. Hockey has minor leagues but those leagues aren�t nearly as extensive.

In closing, I think the men that make the Big Leagues are mentally & physically much tougher than they are given credit for. They've had to climb a bigger hill than their peers in other pro leagues and have earned every penny they make when they finally do make the Majors. The truth is that Major League baseball players are great athletes who every day go to the park to give the game their best and if they don't some else is waiting in the wings to take their spot.

RC
"The Strongest Rockie Fan"

A correction:

We incorrectly reported that Mr. Palmeiro took Stanazol, what he really took was Stanozolol. We apologize for this error. Our new research shows that Stanozolol is the third most popular steroid of them all right behind Deca and D-Bol. What is especially interesting about this drug is that there is no known masking agent. People fail drug tests at very high rates. One of the most famous test failers was world class sprinter, Ben Johnson. Stanazolol much more famous name is Winstrol.

Visit http://www.bodybuilding.com/fun/catwinstrol.htm for details.

Most of the side effects of Winstrol are the same as Stanozol in that it will leave no signs of "Gyno" or "bitch tits" which is the swelling of the nipple area. It also will assist in adding strength but not bulk so when body builders use it they use it to cut fat in the later stages of a training cycle. Mr. Palmiero would like to use a drug like this since he doesn't want to get to big looking. The puffiness / water retention is limited with the use of this drug. As previously reported this drug will lead to erectile dysfunction. We speculate, and it is only speculation, that Mr. Palmeiro has used this drug for about 11 years. One would have to use it along time to develop erectile dysfunction. We have looked at Mr. Palmeiro's career stats and they seem to spike upward between 1992 & 1994. Prior to this time period he was a 20 homer per year hitter who jumped to over 40 per year. His RBI production also jumped about 40 per year as well. We've speculated in prior articles (see Hack Wilson article) that hitting RBI's becomes a much more difficult as a season wears on. The addition of Winstrol in your life will give the user additional recuperative powers that would assist in this aspect of hitting.

There is one difference between the two drugs that is worth discussing. Our incorrect drug was Stanazol but perhaps Mr. Palmeiro should have been taking this one as it is a water based steroid and it will wash out of the body in about three days thus drug tests are easy to pass. Winstrol or Stanozolol is also water based but takes about seven days to wash out. This drug has a huge failure rate. (likely due to its popularity) Mr. Palmeiro is not a Mensa candidate, he wagged his finger at Congress and told them he had never taken steroids thus he opened himself up to perjury charges. Next, he knew he would be tested and per Major League baseball testing rules, the tests are announced. He knew when he would be tested and he screwed up his timing on his use of the drug and when the test would occur.

RC
"The Strongest Rockie Fan"

Originally posted on 08/10/05

Rox Head Baseball
Power Rankings (2/1/06)
                        Opening
                              Day
                  (Last Month) Ranking
1. Chicago White Sox (1)       -
2. Los Angeles Angels (2)      -
3. St. Louis Cardinals (3)     -
4. New York Yankees (4)        -
5. Cleveland Indians (9)       -
6. Atlanta Braves (6)          -
7. Boston Red Sox (5)          -
8. Toronto Blue Jays (7)       -
9. Houston Astros (8)          -
10. Minnesota Twins (10)       -
11. Oakland Athletics (11)     -
12. New York Mets (13)         -
13. San Francisco Giants (15) -
14. Philadelphia Phillies(14) -
15. Los Angeles Dodgers (16)   -
16. San Diego Padres (12)      -
17. Texas Rangers (17)         -
18. Chicago Cubs (18)          -
19. Seattle Mariners (19)      -
20. Baltimore Orioles (21)     -
21. Milwaukee Brewers (22)     -
22. Washington Nationals (24) -
23. Pittsburgh Pirates (26)    -
24. Colorado Rockies (25)      -
25. Florida Marlins (20)       -
26. Arizona Diamondbacks (23) -
27. Kansas City Royals (27)    -
28. Detroit Tigers (28)        -
29. Cincinnati Reds (29)       -
30. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (30) -