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Time Line
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Current Path line Competitive Team Probability:
2005
Jan 1 .3454
Apr 1 .3985
Jul 1 .4571
Oct 1 .5763
2006
Jan 1. .5763
Current Path line Dynasty Probability:
2005
Jan 1 .0850
Apr 1 .0872
Jul 1 .0877
Oct 1 .1026
2006
Jan 1 .1026
The Rockies are still missing a few vital pieces to the puzzle and until they fill those slots, then the probability numbers will suffer.
A look at the pitchers in the timeline:
Future Future Future
Core player All-star HoF
Slot 1 (Starter).. Aaron Cook .90 .40 .075
Slot 2 (Starter).. Jeff Francis .70 .20 .02
Slot 3 (Starter).. No entry .05 .01 .005
Slot 4 (Closer) .. Brian Fuentes .65 .90 .075
A look at the everyday players in the timeline:
Future Future Future
Core player All-star HoF
Slot 1 (leadoff).. No entry .05 .01 .005
Slot 2 (two hitter).. No entry .05 .01 .005
Slot 3 (three hole).. Todd Helton 1.00 1.00 .50
Slot 4 (Clean up) .. Matt Holliday .90 .45 .075
Slot 5 (five hole).. Brad Hawpe .70 .30 .03
Slot 6 (six hole).. Garrett Atkins .60 .30 .03
Probability that the team has the core players in the system to be competitive 70.00%
Probability that the team has a chance to be competitive 57.63%
Probability that the team has a chance to be a dynasty 10.26%
All teams go thru rebuilding efforts in order to make themselves competitive in upcoming seasons. Some teams seem to be in perpetual rebuilding phases while others are always competitive without really winning championships. For instance, the Atlanta Braves have had contending teams for over ten years, yet only have one World Series banner in their rafters during that long stretch. Other franchises go thru meteoritic rises to win a pennant or a World Series only to fall fast and hard back into the abyss. Two recent examples of that would be the 1997 Florida Marlins and the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks. This is more a product of the free agent system than anything else. An owner can literally buy a championship if he so desires but unless he is George Stienbrenner, then he can't ever afford to keep the team together for a stretch of titles.
Its this window in time that a team shoots for that will be our focus for this section. Every fan wants their team to be a dynasty. Believe it or not, the owners and management of the team want that too. A General Manager will try to build a team for that point in time in the future that he knows his team can have a shot to win, and not just win for a season, but to win for a series of successive seasons. In other words, he builds his team, or at least he should build his team, with a singular goal in mind and that is to become a Dynasty.
Well, what is it that makes a team a Dynasty? For the purpose of clarity, a Dynasty can be defined as a team that wins at least 3 world championships within a short period of time. For instance, the most current example of a Dynasty in baseball would be the Yankees of the late nineties. In the NFL, you might have to go back to the Cowboys of the early ninety's to find one, but if the Patriots win this year, then you have to say they meet the dynasty criteria. The main thing here about recognizing these teams is to study why these particular teams came together like they did to consistently win championships.
The thing that binds all dynasty teams together is that they all have a core set of players that have played together for a period of time. No matter what the current state of the game is, its that team chemistry that holds the edge together that puts good teams over the top into greatness. An owner can try to buy a championship by bringing in talent, but if the core players aren't present, then there's no way that team can win a series of championships. A great example of that would be the Yankees. They keep buying new players but they aren't consistently winning the series anymore because they are down to 3 core players left from those great teams of the late nineties. Oh they might win a series here or there in the near future but it won't be for consecutive years that defines dynasty's until they rebuild the team core with new young players brought up thru the farm system.
It's this core player element that this probability study is about. Currently we have a timeline probability odds that the Rockies will develop into a dynasty somewhere around the year 2011 at .0872 (8.72%). It's much lower, of course, if Todd Helton isn't a part of the future because there's no way to tell what players he would bring in if a trade were to occur. Dynasty odds without a Helton are running at.4%. However, we have a much higher setting for the Rockies concerning their ability to develop a competitive team. That probability is currently sitting at .3985 or 39.85% with Helton as a core player and 20.3% without him. And an even higher probability is rewarded for the Rockies in their current ability to field a team with solid core players (47.86% and 35.71%). Since we have already established that it is an absolute necessity for a future dynasty to have in place a core set of players, then this high probability rating of almost 50% bodes well for this franchise. These numbers will, of course, rise and fall as players on the major league roster develop or fail.
Okay, we hear you chuckling to yourself. Why are we talking about Dynasty's when this team will have a hard time keeping from losing 100 games this year? Well, for the purpose of getting reliable data for futures successes, then it is much easier to gather it from a dynasty team than it is from just one time World Series Champions. There are more than a few ways to win a World Series but there is only one way to build a team that wins consistently and this study starts from that consistent point in the future and works its way back to the present. It's no more complicated than that. There is a system that works for building competitive teams and that success derives itself from its farm system. These players directly influence the long-term future of the franchise and not the free agent signings that are so much a part of modern baseball.
