10/31/06
Rockies 2006 Season
by
Head Bum
Hitting
YEAR G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
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2006 162 5562 813 1504 325 54 157 761 2408 561 1108 85 50 .341 .433 .270
2005 162 5542 740 1477 280 34 150 704 2275 509 1103 65 32 .333 .411 .267
Pitching
YEAR W L ERA G CG SHO QS SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
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2006 76 86 4.66 162 5 8 100 34 58 1447.1 1549 812 749 155 553 952
2005 67 95 5.13 162 4 4 83 37 63 1418.2 1600 862 808 175 604 981
Okay, let's be simplistic and write the obvious in this analysis and say that the Rockies are improving. They went from 67 wins in 2005 to 76 wins in 2006... which is an improvement, right?
We agree, so that's it.. we're done now.
Okay, that's too easy.
I'm sure that if you are reading this then you are more than just a casual Rockie fan. If so, then you don't need me to tell you that this team needs some serious improvement in clutch production next year or we'll all gain an extra layer of grey hair. The team finished in the bottom half of MLB at knocking runners in who were in scoring position and would've been near the bottom of the league had they not been so productive in their wins as they were one of only three teams in all of baseball to score more runs than they gave up for teams with records under .500 (Atlanta and Cleveland were the other two).
"I think we have taken another step in the right direction," Dan O'Dowd was quoted in the Post. "But we needed some players to turn into men - some did, some didn't. We need to have more productive at-bats. That will be an area of focus and an area of concentration throughout the organization.
From the early part of July to the last weeks of the season, the Rockies had a horrible time knocking in runs in the latter part of close games. This lack of key productive at bats cost them a chance at a post-season birth. On July 5th the Rockies were in a 3-way tie for first place with three home games against the then struggling Arizona Diamondbacks remaining before the All-Star break. Instead of cementing their hold on first, they were instead swept by the lowly DBacks and the season went south from there as they lost 8 of the first 9 games out of the break.
July 5th, 2006 July 22nd, 2006
West W L PCT GB West W L PCT GB
Colorado 44 40 .524 - - San Francisco 51 47 .520 - -
Los Angeles 44 40 .524 - - Arizona 50 47 .515 0.5
San Diego 44 40 .524 - - San Diego 50 47 .515 0.5
San Francisco 43 42 .506 1.5 Los Angeles 47 51 .480 4.0
Arizona 40 45 .471 4.5 Colorado 45 51 .469 5.0
It's hindsight to think now but what if Dan O'Dowd would have picked up another hitter before the deadline? As you can see above, even with that bad streak, the Rox were only 5 games out. They were getting no offensive production out of their centerfielder and shortstop and only slightly more from their catcher and All-Star mega-salary firstbaseman. The regular secondbaseman was terrific at home but contributing much less on the road. If you're counting, that's five position players. If you include the pitcher, because this is the National League after all, then you have 2/3rds of the line up doing virtually nothing. Yet the team was still only five games out of first. It doesn't take a great leap of the imagination to think that a key bat added in July may have made a big difference. The Rockies GM, however, totally disagreed.
"I think that by the deadline, we had demonstrated mentally that we weren't ready to take another step," O'Dowd said in an interview on MLB.com. "I was happy with the core of our team, although it was still working its way through things -- how to deal with pressure, how to be leaders, how to execute when you have to in order to win a game. I didn't want to disturb our core.
"No. 2 -- there were not many players out there that would have improved our club. I've been very cognizant lately of not making changes for the sake of making changes. You've got to be patient with the guys you have. Now, what we've done over the past few years to build this club has put us in position to improve ourselves. "
It's amazing to think back to the first part of the season now. The Rockies certainly played over their heads but not so much so that you continually saw break after break go their way. In fact, most of the games they won in the first half were legit wins. Yes, a few comebacks in the 8th and 9th innings, but nothing extraordinary. The pitching, of course, was the main reason for early success. Despite cry's from all over the baseball nation concerning the humidor, the pitching stood up not only at home but also on the road where the humidor had no affect.. The rotation settled into a nice groove as the five regulars took their turns without interruption from the 21st game to the end of the season. A truly amazing streak.
The Pitching
When talking about the 2006 Rockies, one must first look at their staff. One very positive thing emerge from the settling dust of the long season and that was the front end of the rotation. Jason Jennings, Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook were as good as any top three in the division for the majority of the season and perhaps right up there with the best in the Majors. Their win/loss records certainly don't back up that statement and Rox Girl over at Purplerow.com wrote a informative article on the matter, but anytime you can keep the front part of a staff together throughout the entire season, then you definitely have the makings for a solid major league rotation.
That being said, none of the three are what you might classify as an 'Ace'. Solid rotations can get you into the playoffs, but teams advance in the tournament with a top of line pitcher or two. These studs are few and far between and the Rockies don't have one yet. Yes, Jennings sometimes gets mentioned as the Ace-of-the-staff as does Cook, but that designation is different from a true 'Ace" like a Roger Clemens or a Randy Johnson. There's a big difference from being a good regular season team and being a Championship team.
The entire rotation improved from 83 RoxHead Quality Starts in 2005 to 100 in 2006, with fairly consistent performances from Josh Fogg and BK Kim in the 4th and 5th spots. Both certainly struggled towards the end of the season which marred what could have been better overall numbers.
The bullpen was anchored by Brian Fuentes. Early on when the team was playing better than .500 ball, he was virtually unhittable... yet he finished the season 18th in the majors with only 30 saves. That save total didn't improve from 2005 as he encountered some bumps and bruises in the second half as did the rest of the team, in fact, none of his overall pitching numbers showed improvement from the previous season.
The rest of the bullpen had its moments. Early on, like the rest of the team, they performed well. As the season progressed, though, they went thru a bunch of changes due to a lack of performance. In fact, no other position on the team, besides centerfield, went thru as many metamorphoses. These changes netted some very good young pitchers, like Manny Corpas and Ramon Remirez, which should benefit the team as it moves forward.
The starting eight
The Rockie offense looks good on paper. They have some .300 hitters and some 100 RBI guys along with a 30 plus homer cleanup basher, however, if you watched any Rockie games this summer, then you know some of those stats are illusions. When the game was on the line in the meat part of the season around the All Star break, well, the hitters that were supposed to produce fell flat on their faces.
"It's not a coincidence that we played well in September and April when not a lot was expected," O'Dowd was quoted in the Post. "But when something was at stake, we put undue pressure on ourselves and it showed."
The Rockies have had some extraordinary hitters in the past and a new one is emerging. I would say that one of the biggest unexpected developments in 2006 was the growth of Garrett Atkins at the plate but that wouldn't be entirely accurate since we here at RoxHead have been very excited about his swing for over 2 years now. He took that stroke and pushed Todd Helton out of his third spot in the lineup and refused to give it back. It seemed like it was just few years back that Todd wrestled it away from Larry Walker, who had manned it starting in 1995. Atkins finished 4th in average and slugging percentage for all third basemen, second in RBI's and 5th in homers.
Not only did Atkins turn heads this year with respect to his offense, but his glove work has become exceptional as he finished with only 19 errors which was 6th in MLB for thirdbasemen. Another emerging glove man was Brad Hawpe in left field. Hawpe has a gun attached to his left shoulder and isn't afraid to use it. I'm sure that any X-Ray of that shoulder would be blacked out by the government sensors because it is one of the best in baseball. Now all we have to do is to get him to settle down at the plate and produce like we know he can.
Clint Hurdle put Matt Holliday in the cleanup position late in the 2005 season and he has been there ever since. His growth as an offensive power hitter has been across the board as he placed in the top 5 in MLB for outfielders in every relevant category. He even earned the fifth Honorary Blake Street Bomber Badge ever rewarded for smashing over 30 homers as a Rockie in Coors... Ellis Burks, Todd Helton, Preston Wilson and Jeromy Burnitz are the others.
Second base was a good year for the Rox. Luis Gonzalez started the season there but was hampered by a sore wrist and eventually lost his spot in the lineup and a job in the big leagues. His replacement was the scrappy Jamey Carroll. Carroll was so good as fielder that he is in the running for a Gold Glove with only 3 errors in 586 chances. Later in the season Kaz Matsui, who was picked up in a trade with the Mets, was given a look at second and performed so well offensively that the Rockies have decided to try and resign him for the 2007 season. There's nothing wrong in accumulating quality infield depth.
Firstbaseman Todd Helton regressed yet again this year as the fans wonder how far their old hero can fall. He did suffer through a very tough illness that certainly zapped his strength but its a cruel world out there... especially so for players with mega-salary's like Helton's. Let's face it, when you make obscene money, then you get brutal reactions from the every day Joe who struggles through the year making the same money as Todd makes in an afternoon of playing a kids game.
Helton was expecting much more from himself and the team in 2006 and doesn't want to hear excuses or what the future holds, which is consistent with being a good leader not only in the field but in the clubhouse as well.
"We had a lot of expectations during the season and we didn't fulfill them," Helton said on the season's final day to the media. "I don't care about talking about what we're going to do. Win games and try to do something about it."
Shortstop Clint Barmes followed Helton's path of regressiveness albeit in a much worse degree. Soon after the July 31st trading deadline passed, FOXSports.com wrote this blistering synopsis of Barmes and Hurdles apparent love affair:
The deadline comes and goes, and Colorado is still stuck with the player who's done the most to shanghai their playoff hopes: Clint Barmes. Barmes has a miserable .275 OBP on the season, and earlier in the year he went an entire month-and-a-half without drawing a walk. But Clint Hurdle keeps running him out there. There's blind loyalty, and then there's self-immolation.
An important thing that isn't reported is that the Rockies really had no where else to turn. AAA shortstop Omar Quintanilla is not a major league prospect, despite what you might read elsewhere, and super stud Troy Tulowitzki really needed more seasoning in AA. So Hurdle kept throwing Barmes out there day after day in front of major league pitching hoping he would come out of his sophomore jinx at the plate, which he never really did. Barmey's defense, though, stay at a major league level, which eased the pain quite a bit.
The 2006 season started with Danny Ardoin at catcher. He had some help from Miguel Ojeda and JD Closser. However, by the end of the first playoff round, all three of them were on different teams. Yorvit Torrealba and Chris Iannetta are the ones left now. Torrealba is an organizational type catcher that all teams need in their system. He is a professional and bi lingual and handles pitchers ego's very well but he ended the season the same way he started it and that was with a achy shoulder. Iannetta got his feet wet in the big league's for the first time and showed everyone that he could hang in there by hitting .260 with 2 homers and 10 RBI in 21 games played.
End of the Year thoughts
The players have moved on to their offseason lives and routines while the fans hunker down for a long winter. What will Dan O'Dowd do to improve the teams lot next year? Will he be given the means to make improvements or are the Rox in a perpetual rebuilding mode
"I have no idea what the payroll will be, and I don't care," O'Dowd was quoted in the Post. "My job is to make us better with the parameters given. No excuses. The focus is on winning. That's it."
"We have to learn how to win. Next season needs to be all about winning. Not about anybody's ego. In a sense, we will always have some sense of a youth movement, as we bring in new players, but the core of the club has gotten to the point that they understand they can play here - and some guys are very good. Now we have to win."
From all angles of observation the Rockies were basically a .500 team in 2006.
HR's BB's H's R's
Rockie pitchers gave up 155 553 1549 812
Rockie hitter had 157 561 1504 813
With that in mind, the winter should be full of ideas and speculations about how to break into the next level. Basically, 81 wins was already reached so most fans will not be satisfied with less than 85-90 wins in 2007. However, MLB is flush with $5.2 billion in revenue, other teams won't sit back and count their winnings, leaving the Rockies at a distinct disadvantage. Colorado could be better next year and finish with a worse record.
Will they look to the free agent market to improve? Nope, they will only sign players for stop gap messures.
"If we remain focused on our (player-development) process, the wins eventually will take care of themselves," farm director Marc Gustafson told Baseball Weekly.
The Rockies will have to lean on their system. With a payroll in the $55-65 million range, O'Dowd won't exactly have to fight the temptation to go after the top prizes in the free agent market.
"Our owners make it easy because they give me a pretty firm budget," O'Dowd also told Baseball Weekly. "We'd love to add Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito, but they're not coming to Colorado."
Keep your skeptical eye planted squarely on what you read in the Daily's because they won't give you anything except the company line. This won't cut it here at the Head.
2007 Payroll ($40,186,000)
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C - Chris Iannetta - $380,000
C - Yorvit Torrealba - $1,000,000
1B - Todd Helton - $16,600,000
2B - Kaz Matsui - $1,500,000
SS - Troy Tulowitzki - $380,000
SS - Clint Barmes - $380,000
3B - Garrett Atkins - $380,000
IF - Jamey Carroll - $750,000
IF - Luis Gonzalez - $380,000
LF - Matt Holliday - $700,000
CF - Cory Sullivan - $380,000
RF - Brad Hawpe - $380,000
OF - Jeff Baker - $380,000
OF - Ryan Spilborghs - $380,000
SP - Jason Jennings - $5,500,000
SP - Jeff Francis - $500,000
SP - Aaron Cook - $3,050,000
SP - Byung-Hyun Kim - $2,500,000
SP -
CL - Brian Fuentes - $3,500,000
RP - Jeremy Affeldt - $1,000,000
RP - Ramon Ramirez - $380,000
RP - Manuel Corpas - $380,000
RP -
RP -
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10/23/06
Revelation of Things to Come
by
RC
We here at RoxHead are Gnostics when it comes to baseball. The word gnostic comes from the Greek word gnosis or knowledge. Gnostics were people who had special knowledge about God and revelation of things to come. In your reading to follow we will use our special powers, with respect to revelations of things to come, in order to make some comments on next years Rockies team. The most intense gnosis waves beat down from 20th and Blake in absolutes. We can assure you that what you are going to be reading in the next 5 to 10 minutes are words of wisdoms beyond what you'll read anywhere else in the Rockie nation.
Certainly, there are specific positions in the Rockies lineup that have many burning questions. However, you don't need our powers to see that Garrett Atkins and Matt Holliday are cemented into their positions. As well as Todd Helton and his albatross of a contract. Also, the gnosis can be relieved of its duty with respect to Aaron Cook, Jason Jennings, Jeff Francis and Brian Fuentes as they are vital pieces to the pitching puzzle.
Now on to the positions that are in question.
Catcher: Chris Iannetta will be the back up catcher in 2007 but get a lot of games. Yorvit Torrealba may or may not be the regular catcher as the Rockies are happy with his offensive output but he has injury problems and his arm/shoulder may not come around. Iannetta is the catcher of the future.
Second base: This is an interesting position. We have been enlightened to the fact that a high ranking minor league player, Corey Wimberly, is still at least two years away from getting a shot at the big leagues. The Rockies do like this player a lot and may even experiment with him in center field. Eric Young Jr. is even farther away but because of his power potential, which is better than Wimberly's, he has more potential upside in the eyes of management. EY's clone has all the skills Wimberly has but with more power. Both of these players have a lot of work to do to improve as infielders as they are nowhere close to being major leaguers in the field. Lastly, Jr. will also get some looks in center as well.
The second base position will be played by Kaz Matsui and Jamey Carroll in 2007. The Rockies are currently working to reduce Matsui's salary demands in order to keep him.
Shortstop: Troy Tulowitzki and Clint Barmes will battle it out for the starting job next year. Obviously, Tulowitzki is going to be a great player and hitter but he is not as good as Barmes in the field yet. The Rockies truly believe that Barmes may have had a 'sophomore jinx' and are not counting him out as their shortstop of the future. The Rockies are very happy with Barmes as a fielder. He has even exceeded their expectations.
Outfield: Cory Sullivan will not be next years starting center fielder. For obvious reasons, with respect to his weak bat, he is a backup player. They may bring someone in through free agency to fill the spot or Brad Hawpe may get a look. The Rockies think there is a real possibility that Hawpe can play the position, however, they don't think he can hit lefties. Hawpe will also platoon in right field with Jeff Baker. Forget about Baker playing in center as he is too slow and can't possibly play that position in the huge expanses of Coors Field.
Pitchers: Look for BK Kim to be gone. Remember, we are dealing in absolutes here and the Gnostic wave is strong. BK Kim is history. The Rox aren't happy with his road performance and for some reason he can't pitch in the day time. They will try and resign Josh Fogg and were happy with his performance this year.
Don't look for many changes in the bull pen.
Confirmed: Late in the season and during a game Jeff Loria, the idiotic owner of the Marlins, was yelling at the umpires during the game. Manager Joe Girardi got mad told Loria to "shut the f--- up" Loria subsequently fire Mr. Girardi. Mr. Loria will continually work to sabotage himself and his team.
Closing thoughts.
Dan O'Dowd is a very good GM who has to work with a low salary team. Granted he may have made some mistakes early on but he has clearly developed a good minor league system and he has a great crop of young players to choose from. Frankly, he doesn't need to sign high priced free agents. We have always believed that if the Rockies have a problem, then it is the owners who don't want to or can't afford to spend any money on the team.
The Rockies are in a quandary. In order for them to make money they need to bring in at least 2.5 million fans to Coors Field. That's the key figure. If that happens, then the team will make enough money that they can start to spend a little more on player's salary's. However, and this is where the quandary comes into play, the Rockies have to develop a team that can win 85 games with that low salary (less than $50 mil). Once that happens, and the fans start to return, then this low budget team can start to become a mid-level salary team, which is more in-line with some of the other teams in the Division.
All of us fans are arm chair quarterbacks who deign to believe that only we have the special knowledge to run a team. "If only the dumb son of a bitch had done what I said". Who hasn't said or wondered that? And even if we wonder, "What is truth?" None of us really knows the true goings on behind the scenes of a team. To a certain degree, we really don't know what special skill or talents a player has or doesn't have. Do we really have a power to see things in the future? Hell no. But in the end I think Mr. O'Dowd is on the right track and I believe that next years team will compete for 85 wins and then who knows after that... unless you have the Gnostic powers.
